| Key Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Event | Fitch Ratings revised India's GDP growth forecast |
| Date of Announcement | December 4, 2025 |
| FY26 GDP Growth Forecast | 7.4%, up from previous estimate of 6.9% |
| Q2 FY26 GDP Growth | 8.2% (July-September), highest in six quarters |
| Primary Growth Driver | Private consumer spending |
| Supporting Factors | Stronger real income, improved sentiment, positive spillovers from GST reforms |
| Nominal vs Real GDP | GDP deflator at 0.5%, indicating minimal inflation impact |
| FY27 GDP Growth Forecast | 6.4%, reflecting a more balanced growth path |
| Inflation Forecast (FY26) | 1.5%, allowing RBI room for further rate cuts |
| Inflation Forecast (FY27) | 4.4%, driven by base effects and economic tightening |
| RBI Rate Cut Projection | One additional cut in December 2025, repo rate to 5.25% |
| Rupee Performance | Hit record low of 90.29/USD in December 2025; projected to strengthen to 87/USD by end-2026 |
| External Trade Barrier | Effective tariff rates of 35% on exports to the US, impacting external demand |
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